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why us will suffer less in the trade war with china: simple maths has the answer.

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Posted (edited)

us imports from china: usd505.6bln

 

us exports to china: usd130.37bln

 

difference: usd375.23bln surplus for china

 

if there is imposition of tariffs on chinese exports to us, it will flow on to american consumers in terms of higher prices, but higher prices also attract us production of certain goods to restart. thereby negating the overall inflationary pressure.

 

if there is imposition of tariffs on us exports to china, it will flow on to chinese consumers in terms of higher prices but becos most of the goods r in agricultural and energy, it will be difficult to negate the overall inflationary pressure short of increasing local energy and agricultural production or alternative sources, which is not feasible due to seasonal and quality plus pricing issues.

 

secondly, chinese exports to the us account for almost 5% of its gdp while us exports to china only accounts for only ard 1% of its gdp.

 

thirdly, china holds more than usd3trillion in us govt bonds, so an immediate selldown will trigger more pain for the china than the us govt issuer.

 

thats why mad-rational Trump is comfortable with launching the trade war after the simple math calculation.

Edited by Guest
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If what Trump said is correct, USA has been allowing Tiong goods in free but Tiong imposes tarrifs on USA goods entering Tiongland. Past presidents did not dare to do anything.

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Posted (edited)

Tiongs need to be screwed. One way or the other.

China needs US market more than US need China Market.

 

Higher tariffs means US will buy LESS China products = China earn much less.

 

China no buy US products , US can live another day.

Edited by TooBianTai

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Posted (edited)

Tot now US gng negotiate wif AT? Or was. Tat for the telco

Edited by Guest

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us imports from china: usd505.6bln

 

us exports to china: usd130.37bln

 

difference: usd375.23bln surplus for china

 

if there is imposition of tariffs on chinese exports to us, it will flow on to american consumers in terms of higher prices, but higher prices also attract us production of certain goods to restart. thereby negating the overall inflationary pressure.

 

if there is imposition of tariffs on us exports to china, it will flow on to chinese consumers in terms of higher prices but becos most of the goods r in agricultural and energy, it will be difficult to negate the overall inflationary pressure short of increasing local energy and agricultural production or alternative sources, which is not feasible due to seasonal and quality plus pricing issues.

 

secondly, chinese exports to the us account for almost 5% of its gdp while us exports to china only accounts for only ard 1% of its gdp.

 

thirdly, china holds more than usd3trillion in us govt bonds, so an immediate selldown will trigger more pain for the china than the us govt issuer.

 

thats why mad-rational Trump is comfortable with launching the trade war after the simple math calculation.

 

 

 

this is what happen what you have a businessman to be a leader aka the art of a deal

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us imports from china: usd505.6bln

 

us exports to china: usd130.37bln

 

difference: usd375.23bln surplus for china

 

if there is imposition of tariffs on chinese exports to us, it will flow on to american consumers in terms of higher prices, but higher prices also attract us production of certain goods to restart. thereby negating the overall inflationary pressure.

 

if there is imposition of tariffs on us exports to china, it will flow on to chinese consumers in terms of higher prices but becos most of the goods r in agricultural and energy, it will be difficult to negate the overall inflationary pressure short of increasing local energy and agricultural production or alternative sources, which is not feasible due to seasonal and quality plus pricing issues.

 

secondly, chinese exports to the us account for almost 5% of its gdp while us exports to china only accounts for only ard 1% of its gdp.

 

thirdly, china holds more than usd3trillion in us govt bonds, so an immediate selldown will trigger more pain for the china than the us govt issuer.

 

thats why mad-rational Trump is comfortable with launching the trade war after the simple math calculation.

 

 

Not necessarily:

 

1. US export to China:

 

The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2016 were:

miscellaneous grain, seeds, fruit (i.e., soybeans) ($15 billion) - LLST beat the bullet,

aircraft ($15 billion) - buy from Airbus,

electrical machinery ($12 billion), machinery ($11 billion) and vehicles ($11 billion) - from Europe?

 

2. China Export to US:

 

The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2016 were:

electrical machinery ($129 billion),

machinery ($97 billion),

furniture and bedding ($29 billion), toys and sports equipment ($24 billion) and footwear ($15 billion) - labor intensive plus need skills, that US labor force might not have.

 

increase prices will lead to increase inflation, which means FED will raise the interest rate which means increase in interest payable by consumer.

 

3. If China does not have surplus, there will be less demand for the US govt bonds, means they need to pay higher interest rate, which becomes the benchmark, means higher interest for the consumer, and most US consumers live on credit. - another debt crisis? US - LLST.

 

If crisis led to higher energy price, see which country suffers first. US gasoline consumption is 3 times that of China.

 

Global trade is no simple math.

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Posted (edited)
Not necessarily:

 

1. US export to China:

 

The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2016 were:

miscellaneous grain, seeds, fruit (i.e., soybeans) ($15 billion) - LLST beat the bullet,

aircraft ($15 billion) - buy from Airbus,

electrical machinery ($12 billion), machinery ($11 billion) and vehicles ($11 billion) - from Europe?

 

2. China Export to US:

 

The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2016 were:

electrical machinery ($129 billion),

machinery ($97 billion),

furniture and bedding ($29 billion), toys and sports equipment ($24 billion) and footwear ($15 billion) - labor intensive plus need skills, that US labor force might not have.

 

increase prices will lead to increase inflation, which means FED will raise the interest rate which means increase in interest payable by consumer.

 

3. If China does not have surplus, there will be less demand for the US govt bonds, means they need to pay higher interest rate, which becomes the benchmark, means higher interest for the consumer, and most US consumers live on credit. - another debt crisis? US - LLST.

 

If crisis led to higher energy price, see which country suffers first. US gasoline consumption is 3 times that of China.

 

Global trade is no simple math.

 

now obviously can see u r not very well-versed with commodities trade flow. so allow me to let u see deeper into the numbers

 

1. agricultural goods r seasonal and us soybeans r imported during the second half of the yr to meet the demand, not first half. secondly, us energy exports r cheaper than other sources now, even after adding in freighting costs due to higher production and the crude is of better quality.

 

as a result, if tariffs r imposed on us soybean and energy, it will feed directly into chinese inflation.

 

2. there is alrdy a reverse flow of many labor intensive industries back to us due to shipping costing etc to make assembly/production in china less attractive.

 

secondly, technology has make labor intensive industries less intensive via 3d printing etc.

 

so inflation will be somewhat negated and therefore the inflationary pressure is not from price inflation but production led overheating. so fed raising rates will be just tempering overheating in the economy, not pressing down inflation

 

Why manufacturing jobs are coming back to the U.S. — even as companies buy more robots

 

Meet the Chinese Billionaire Who's Moving Manufacturing to the U.S. to Cut Costs

 

Master Lock reassessing China

 

Adidas joins Carbon’s board as its 3D printed shoes finally drop

 

3. the us govt bond market is of deep liquidity pool and the demand for us govt bonds is used as a reserve and for settling bop differences. even if the bop disappear, the us fed will continue using bond market to adjust the fed rates.

 

what u stated r from the standard economic 101 textbook, but does the real world work in the way which u highlighted?????

Edited by Guest
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Tot now US gng negotiate wif AT? Or was. Tat for the telco

 

positioning posturing for the best benefits. game theory at work.

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this is what happen what you have a businessman to be a leader aka the art of a deal

 

there is a reason why mad-rational Trump became richer than his old man.

 

but sgp still using book-smart leaders.

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there is a reason why mad-rational Trump became richer than his old man.

 

but sgp still using book-smart leaders.

Sinkies appoint military generals in our parliament because we are under constant threat from the north and south... we need the generals to defend us!

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Sinkies appoint military generals in our parliament because we are under constant threat from the north and south... we need the generals to defend us!

 

but they no look very fitter than other generals in the region, so how to win and fight?????

 

image.img.png vs

 

ini-harta-kekayaan-milik-calon-panglima-tni-jenderal-gatot-nurmantyo.jpg

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now obviously can see u r not very well-versed with commodities trade flow. so allow me to let u see deeper into the numbers

 

1. agricultural goods r seasonal and us soybeans r imported during the second half of the yr to meet the demand, not first half. secondly, us energy exports r cheaper than other sources now, even after adding in freighting costs due to higher production and the crude is of better quality.

 

as a result, if tariffs r imposed on us soybean and energy, it will feed directly into chinese inflation.

 

2. there is alrdy a reverse flow of many labor intensive industries back to us due to shipping costing etc to make assembly/production in china less attractive.

 

secondly, technology has make labor intensive industries less intensive via 3d printing etc.

 

so inflation will be somewhat negated and therefore the inflationary pressure is not from price inflation but production led overheating. so fed raising rates will be just tempering overheating in the economy, not pressing down inflation

 

Why manufacturing jobs are coming back to the U.S. — even as companies buy more robots

 

Meet the Chinese Billionaire Who's Moving Manufacturing to the U.S. to Cut Costs

 

Master Lock reassessing China

 

Adidas joins Carbon’s board as its 3D printed shoes finally drop

 

3. the us govt bond market is of deep liquidity pool and the demand for us govt bonds is used as a reserve and for settling bop differences. even if the bop disappear, the us fed will continue using bond market to adjust the fed rates.

 

what u stated r from the standard economic 101 textbook, but does the real world work in the way which u highlighted?????

 

 

 

book-smart spotted by socrates469bc

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now obviously can see u r not very well-versed with commodities trade flow. so allow me to let u see deeper into the numbers

 

1. agricultural goods r seasonal and us soybeans r imported during the second half of the yr to meet the demand, not first half. secondly, us energy exports r cheaper than other sources now, even after adding in freighting costs due to higher production and the crude is of better quality.

 

as a result, if tariffs r imposed on us soybean and energy, it will feed directly into chinese inflation.

 

2. there is alrdy a reverse flow of many labor intensive industries back to us due to shipping costing etc to make assembly/production in china less attractive.

 

secondly, technology has make labor intensive industries less intensive via 3d printing etc.

 

so inflation will be somewhat negated and therefore the inflationary pressure is not from price inflation but production led overheating. so fed raising rates will be just tempering overheating in the economy, not pressing down inflation

 

Why manufacturing jobs are coming back to the U.S. — even as companies buy more robots

 

Meet the Chinese Billionaire Who's Moving Manufacturing to the U.S. to Cut Costs

 

Master Lock reassessing China

 

Adidas joins Carbon’s board as its 3D printed shoes finally drop

 

3. the us govt bond market is of deep liquidity pool and the demand for us govt bonds is used as a reserve and for settling bop differences. even if the bop disappear, the us fed will continue using bond market to adjust the fed rates.

 

what u stated r from the standard economic 101 textbook, but does the real world work in the way which u highlighted?????

 

1.

 

Top 15 Crude Oil Suppliers to China

 

China’s Top Providers of Imported Crude Oil

Below are the top 15 countries that supplied 89.2% of the crude oil imported into China during 2017:

 

  1. Russia: US$23.7 billion (14.6% of China’s total crude oil imports)
  2. Saudi Arabia: $20.5 billion (12.6%)
  3. Angola: $19.8 billion (12.2%)
  4. Iraq: $13.8 billion (8.5%)
  5. Oman: $12.2 billion (7.5%)
  6. Iran: $11.9 billion (7.3%)
  7. Brazil: $8.8 billion (5.4%)
  8. Kuwait: $7.1 billion (4.4%)
  9. Venezuela: $6.6 billion (4%)
  10. United Arab Emirates: $4.1 billion (2.5%)
  11. United Kingdom: $3.6 billion (2.2%)
  12. Congo: $3.44 billion (2.1%)
  13. Colombia: $3.37 billion (2.1%)
  14. United States: $3.2 billion (2%)
  15. Malaysia: $2.6 billion (1.6%)

Soy source: Brazil's share of soybean exports to China hits record

 

China, which imports 60 percent of the soybeans traded worldwide, bought 50.93 million tonnes from Brazil in 2017, accounting for 53.3 percent of total purchases, according to customs data released on Thursday. Chinese buyers mainly use soy to churn out cooking oil and ingredients for animal feed.

 

U.S. sales came in at 32.9 million tonnes, or 34.4 percent of China’s imports, the exporter’s lowest share since at least 2006.

 

“Soybean imports from Brazil to China are expected to keep growing in the new year ... Brazilian beans will have an advantage in prices and protein (content),” said Tian Hao, senior analyst with First Futures in the Chinese city of Tianjin.

 

2. Let's see how fast they can reverse flow $200B business consisting of tens of thousands of products.

 

3. US Fed don't adjust the interest based on the bond market. it is based on economic data, expected inflation and growth, to maintain economic stability. The FOMC, which is independent of the government, set the benchmark rate.

 

 

 

If trade war is good for US, certainly the investors are not seeing it:

 

Dow logs 5th straight drop, but stocks end off lows as energy, tech limit trade-war slide

 

What are strategists saying?

“Trade tensions with China have consistently been the biggest driver of equity volatility recently,” said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell, in a note. “If the current trade skirmish with China were to escalate into a full-blown trade war, it could potentially have a materially negative impact on corporate earnings growth.”

 

from the beloved Fox network:

 

US-China trade war is hurting blue-collar workers: ITI CEO

 

So yeah, all these are text book 101. I guess so many people in the world do not know how the real world works.

 

 

Again, it is not a simple math. Plus, Xi can afford to play this game long term, he is President for a foreseeable future. Trump needs to stand for another election in slightly above 2 years time. He needs quick wins, and he is thinking that China will give in first. If you understand China, that is unlikely to happen. Trump also needs distractions from all the problems he is facing with the Special Counsel, Stormy, the New York State suit, Manafort going to jail, Cohen might cooperate and a long list to follow.

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Posted (edited)
but they no look very fitter than other generals in the region, so how to win and fight?????

 

image.img.png vs

 

ini-harta-kekayaan-milik-calon-panglima-tni-jenderal-gatot-nurmantyo.jpg

dont worry, Lieutenant General Ng is strong leader like Leonaidas the warrior king.

Edited by Guest
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I am liking this to and fro analysis. Good food for thought. Thanks!

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Hogay, we are back into Econ 101, and too muchie JJWW, you say i no say, n then now i say you must not say, whatever lah!!

0gGGuB9.jpg

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Posted (edited)
1.

 

Top 15 Crude Oil Suppliers to China

 

China’s Top Providers of Imported Crude Oil

Below are the top 15 countries that supplied 89.2% of the crude oil imported into China during 2017:

 

  1. Russia: US$23.7 billion (14.6% of China’s total crude oil imports)
  2. Saudi Arabia: $20.5 billion (12.6%)
  3. Angola: $19.8 billion (12.2%)
  4. Iraq: $13.8 billion (8.5%)
  5. Oman: $12.2 billion (7.5%)
  6. Iran: $11.9 billion (7.3%)
  7. Brazil: $8.8 billion (5.4%)
  8. Kuwait: $7.1 billion (4.4%)
  9. Venezuela: $6.6 billion (4%)
  10. United Arab Emirates: $4.1 billion (2.5%)
  11. United Kingdom: $3.6 billion (2.2%)
  12. Congo: $3.44 billion (2.1%)
  13. Colombia: $3.37 billion (2.1%)
  14. United States: $3.2 billion (2%)
  15. Malaysia: $2.6 billion (1.6%)

Soy source: Brazil's share of soybean exports to China hits record

 

China, which imports 60 percent of the soybeans traded worldwide, bought 50.93 million tonnes from Brazil in 2017, accounting for 53.3 percent of total purchases, according to customs data released on Thursday. Chinese buyers mainly use soy to churn out cooking oil and ingredients for animal feed.

 

U.S. sales came in at 32.9 million tonnes, or 34.4 percent of China’s imports, the exporter’s lowest share since at least 2006.

 

“Soybean imports from Brazil to China are expected to keep growing in the new year ... Brazilian beans will have an advantage in prices and protein (content),” said Tian Hao, senior analyst with First Futures in the Chinese city of Tianjin.

 

2. Let's see how fast they can reverse flow $200B business consisting of tens of thousands of products.

 

3. US Fed don't adjust the interest based on the bond market. it is based on economic data, expected inflation and growth, to maintain economic stability. The FOMC, which is independent of the government, set the benchmark rate.

 

 

 

If trade war is good for US, certainly the investors are not seeing it:

 

Dow logs 5th straight drop, but stocks end off lows as energy, tech limit trade-war slide

 

What are strategists saying?

“Trade tensions with China have consistently been the biggest driver of equity volatility recently,” said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell, in a note. “If the current trade skirmish with China were to escalate into a full-blown trade war, it could potentially have a materially negative impact on corporate earnings growth.”

 

from the beloved Fox network:

 

US-China trade war is hurting blue-collar workers: ITI CEO

 

So yeah, all these are text book 101. I guess so many people in the world do not know how the real world works.

 

 

Again, it is not a simple math. Plus, Xi can afford to play this game long term, he is President for a foreseeable future. Trump needs to stand for another election in slightly above 2 years time. He needs quick wins, and he is thinking that China will give in first. If you understand China, that is unlikely to happen. Trump also needs distractions from all the problems he is facing with the Special Counsel, Stormy, the New York State suit, Manafort going to jail, Cohen might cooperate and a long list to follow.

 

seems like u do not even understand the nature of tradeflows in commodities.

 

allow me to pinpoint out the weakness in ur points.

 

do u know what is the current production of crude oil and consumption in the us now and in future????

 

they r producing ard 11m bpd while consuming 20m bpd. however, becos of price arbitraging, they r exporting higher quality midwestern/eagle shale while importing heavy arab lights for processing.

 

while in lng production and consumption, us production has a surplus of 2mcf available for export.

 

and the production figure is expected to increase over the yrs as more exploration and better drilling techniques come online.

 

America's oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

 

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

second, do u know the growing period for soybean and how long they can last b4 they r still sellable.

 

let me them u, soybean can only be kept up to 6mths max b4 crushing, afterwards, the beans r not of standard, meaning the oil content and protein content will fall over time.

 

us growing period is from apr to nov, depending on the weather, and is for supplying chinese plus india demand during jan- june.

 

south american growing period is from sep-june, and is for supplying chinese plus india demand during july-dec.

 

so no matter how much soybean south american can produce, becos of seasonality growing and quality issue, brazilian and argies beans cannot totally replaced us imports.

 

do u trade in the financial market???? if u do, u will understand the simple logic of what goes up must come down, much like newton's laws.

 

djia has been skyrocketing from 20k pre 2016 to ard 25k currently, so there will be bound to have profit taking. and if u noticed, volatility is part and parcel of the market, so in the end, market fundamentals will be back to whether there will be a structural or economic shock to the system, not political or trade shock, which is temporary.

 

and now, back to mad-rational Trump, if he is guilty of collusion with the russians, he would have been found out by fbi. what is found out though was that his associates were involved in some indiscretionary financial dealings, none of which pointed to political collusion.

 

any more questions which i can clarify for u on trade issues?????

Edited by Guest
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Posted (edited)
Tiongs need to be screwed. One way or the other.

China needs US market more than US need China Market.

 

Higher tariffs means US will buy LESS China products = China earn much less.

 

China no buy US products , US can live another day.

 

No lah, higher tariffs means US, can help save and increase thier tax-payers monies, and china can only sell this high tariff product to another 3rd cuntry, if no one buys then ownself sell ownself lor!! Haiz!

 

If China buy less us high tech product then can only copy lesser, but us can sell to another 3rd world cuntry mah with discount!!

Edited by Guest

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come in pruss one.... but know nuts about economics...

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seems like u do not even understand the nature of tradeflows in commodities.

 

allow me to pinpoint out the weakness in ur points.

 

do u know what is the current production of crude oil and consumption in the us now and in future????

 

they r producing ard 11m bpd while consuming 20m bpd. however, becos of price arbitraging, they r exporting higher quality midwestern/eagle shale while importing heavy arab lights for processing.

 

while in lng production and consumption, us production has a surplus of 2mcf available for export.

 

and the production figure is expected to increase over the yrs as more exploration and better drilling techniques come online.

 

America's oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

 

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

second, do u know the growing period for soybean and how long they can last b4 they r still sellable.

 

let me them u, soybean can only be kept up to 6mths max b4 crushing, afterwards, the beans r not of standard, meaning the oil content and protein content will fall over time.

 

us growing period is from apr to nov, depending on the weather, and is for supplying chinese plus india demand during jan- june.

 

south american growing period is from sep-june, and is for supplying chinese plus india demand during july-dec.

 

so no matter how much soybean south american can produce, becos of seasonality growing and quality issue, brazilian and argies beans cannot totally replaced us imports.

 

do u trade in the financial market???? if u do, u will understand the simple logic of what goes up must come down, much like newton's laws.

 

djia has been skyrocketing from 20k pre 2016 to ard 25k currently, so there will be bound to have profit taking. and if u noticed, volatility is part and parcel of the market, so in the end, market fundamentals will be back to whether there will be a structural or economic shock to the system, not political or trade shock, which is temporary.

 

and now, back to mad-rational Trump, if he is guilty of collusion with the russians, he would have been found out by fbi. what is found out though was that his associates were involved in some indiscretionary financial dealings, none of which pointed to political collusion.

 

any more questions which i can clarify for u on trade issues?????

 

Yes, only one small question? How much millions have you made so far, i broke leh!!

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book-smart spotted by socrates469bc

 

when one reads too much in theoretical concepts, one will forget the basics.

 

this is especially true in social sciences such as economics.

 

one forget that economics is dynamic, not static.

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Yes, only one small question? How much millions have you made so far, i broke leh!!

 

i havent made my usd100m yet, so i dont really have the midas touch.

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