Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
socrates469bc

why us will suffer less in the trade war with china: simple maths has the answer.

Recommended Posts

shenzhen gdp still grow 8% due to robotics surge

hk now 3% 

sg dunno

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, socrates469bc said:

US trade dispute is just part of the fight some in china stir to make Xi look bad.

Real thing is Xi made a lot of ccp ppl not happy by catching corruption... China made economy has been really bad since 2014...

A lot of changes since then actually made the crash delay until now.

But now everything comes into picture and now with trade war with US made china even in bad position.

Only thing is china or Xi believes they just need to wait it out and china will be the final winner... because china took a lot of other countries resources like africa oil,sri lanka, and now trying for malaysia and brunei.

If anyone here reads china novels, u will understand a bit of china culture(and its different from oversea chinese)... then u will understand china stance and china is also called "crazy".

So if china economy fails, singapore govt will follow...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/19/2018 at 7:07 PM, Green Celery said:

my point is, it is not a simple math, and US is not the only supplier to China.

 

In a trade war, both parties suffer, and there will be collateral damage. It is not necessary that US will suffer less, the equation is complex.

Oh... u are right. its not about maths...

In a trade war, both party will not suffer... its the rest of the world that suffer...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Worcer said:

US trade dispute is just part of the fight some in china stir to make Xi look bad.

Real thing is Xi made a lot of ccp ppl not happy by catching corruption... China made economy has been really bad since 2014...

A lot of changes since then actually made the crash delay until now.

But now everything comes into picture and now with trade war with US made china even in bad position.

Only thing is china or Xi believes they just need to wait it out and china will be the final winner... because china took a lot of other countries resources like africa oil,sri lanka, and now trying for malaysia and brunei.

If anyone here reads china novels, u will understand a bit of china culture(and its different from oversea chinese)... then u will understand china stance and china is also called "crazy".

So if china economy fails, singapore govt will follow...

i would differ with u on whether anyone in china stir the trade war to make Emperor Xi looks bad.

no one would have been able to engage in the trade war without his explicit go-ahead but i m really surprised on how he believed in his own propaganda and just how many bought into it as well.

this trade war really made Emperor Xi looks very bad in front of the chinese populace and the world-at-large as apparently, his leadership is totally unprepared despite having a good 6yrs to prepare.

what is disturbing for the chinese economy is that it is not only facing external pressure, but also internal pressure. the trade war with us will be the opening salvo on pressuring the overall chinese economy and what follows will be a domino effect on the rest of the economy. i foresee a chinese banking crisis in the next 2 yrs or so if there is no resolution and this will impact onto the regional economies, particularly sea.

the scenario i foresee if such a situation arose, is that there will be a hard landing for many east asian economies via the housing market which will play out over a yr or 2. but what will be the savior this time rd is that there will be no external bop issues.

the current situation for china reminds me of the first sino-japanese war in 1894. i m sure u can see the similarities.

for Emperor Xi, he will be under pressure to step down at the end of his current term since there r alrdy undercurrents calling for him to take responsibility for the debacle which may cause china's progress to slow down or even fall back 10 yrs.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, socrates469bc said:

 i foresee a chinese banking crisis in the next 2 yrs or so if there is no resolution and this will impact onto the regional economies, particularly sea.

the scenario i foresee if such a situation arose, is that there will be a hard landing for many east asian economies via the housing market which will play out over a yr or 2. but what will be the savior this time rd is that there will be no external bop issues.

the current situation for china reminds me of the first sino-japanese war in 1894. i m sure u can see the similarities.

for Emperor Xi, he will be under pressure to step down at the end of his current term since there r alrdy undercurrents calling for him to take responsibility for the debacle which may cause china's progress to slow down or even fall back 10 yrs.

 

If there no resolution for the next 2yr, will gold goes up or down

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, socrates469bc said:

i would differ with u on whether anyone in china stir the trade war to make Emperor Xi looks bad.

no one would have been able to engage in the trade war without his explicit go-ahead but i m really surprised on how he believed in his own propaganda and just how many bought into it as well.

this trade war really made Emperor Xi looks very bad in front of the chinese populace and the world-at-large as apparently, his leadership is totally unprepared despite having a good 6yrs to prepare.

what is disturbing for the chinese economy is that it is not only facing external pressure, but also internal pressure. the trade war with us will be the opening salvo on pressuring the overall chinese economy and what follows will be a domino effect on the rest of the economy. i foresee a chinese banking crisis in the next 2 yrs or so if there is no resolution and this will impact onto the regional economies, particularly sea.

the scenario i foresee if such a situation arose, is that there will be a hard landing for many east asian economies via the housing market which will play out over a yr or 2. but what will be the savior this time rd is that there will be no external bop issues.

the current situation for china reminds me of the first sino-japanese war in 1894. i m sure u can see the similarities.

for Emperor Xi, he will be under pressure to step down at the end of his current term since there r alrdy undercurrents calling for him to take responsibility for the debacle which may cause china's progress to slow down or even fall back 10 yrs.

 

What i meant was not someone in china start the trade war...

Xi started the trade war, thinking everyone was behind him in china... but some people took the advantage and backstab him.

Like u said above to let him come down...

Its china culture to do this like of political backstabbing.

China is alrdy having a banking crisis now... the govt trying to hide and do protection...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Worcer said:

What i meant was not someone in china start the trade war...

Xi started the trade war, thinking everyone was behind him in china... but some people took the advantage and backstab him.

Like u said above to let him come down...

Its china culture to do this like of political backstabbing.

China is alrdy having a banking crisis now... the govt trying to hide and do protection...

agree with u that there r cliques in the cpc wanting Emperor Xi to come down and they r unhappy with him doing away with term limit.

and this is the perfect chance to damage his legitimacy via his ineffectual leadership.

he only has himself to blame for giving this opportunity to others.

this episode is a crack in his armor and if played correctly, the party may turn against him and force him down since there r alrdy social dissent.

Edited by socrates469bc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The_King said:

If there no resolution for the next 2yr, will gold goes up or down

i see a resolution in the next 3mths or so with china giving in since china is having internal pressure to ease inflation and stabilize the forex. so no need to look to 2yrs down the road since the chinese economy will not be able to hold out too long.

if Emperor Xi doesnt , the chinese economy may implode within a yr or so with him being disposed via a party coup since he will viewed as an ineffectual leader. he doesnt have the revolutionary credentials or war experience of Deng, so most pla units, even beijing-based ones, will sidelined if the majority of the politburo decided to abandon ship.

i dont see gold going up strongly since everyone will be holding usd instead.

Edited by socrates469bc
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

i see a resolution in the next 3mths or so with china giving in since china is having internal pressure to ease inflation and stabilize the forex. so no need to look to 2yrs down the road since the chinese economy will not be able to hold out too long.

if Emperor Xi doesnt , the chinese economy may implode within a yr or so with him being disposed via a party coup since he will viewed as an ineffectual leader. he doesnt have the revolutionary credentials or war experience of Deng, so most pla units, even beijing-based ones, will sidelined if the majority of the politburo decided to abandon ship.

i dont see gold going up strongly since everyone will be holding usd instead.

Thanks, I want put money in ICBC bank, now also scare.

 

I think convert to gold bar and keep at home better

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, dysentry said:

shenzhen gdp still grow 8% due to robotics surge

hk now 3% 

sg dunno

a trade minister with no knowledge of incoterms coupled with sms and ps who r doctors or fun manager with no real experience, along with a finance minister with no real life biz experience, i think sgp is lucky not to record negative growth.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, The_King said:

Thanks, I want put money in ICBC bank, now also scare.

 

I think convert to gold bar and keep at home better

buy cheap bank shares will be the way to go.

unfortunately, local and foreign bank shares r too richly valued.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, socrates469bc said:

buy cheap bank shares will be the way to go.

unfortunately, local and foreign bank shares r too richly valued.

Next week I close my current  saving account at ICBC

 

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×